The 2010 Senate Races: A Spectator's Guide

Well, it's that time of year again: Time to write in my increasingly-infrequently-updated blog! After a lengthy absence following my abandonment of my last sport's project, the FIFA World Cup, I've decided to get right back in it with an even more interesting sport: American Politics. As you may've noticed, there's a little election-thingy planned for this Tuesday, Nov. 2nd. In addition to the whole deciding-the-future-of-the-nation angle, it'll also make for some great television, so to help everyone follow along at home, I give you my "Spectator's Guide" to the Senatorial elections.

First though, a quick refresher on the Senate. It's the Upper House of our bicameral legislative body, composed of 100 Senators, 2 from each state. Each Senator serves for 6 years, meaning roughly a third of the seats are up for election on Tuesday (actually, 37 are up, due to retirement, death, etc.) In the current Senate, the Democrats control 59 seats, and the Republicans 41. Thus, to regain control, the Republicans need to gain 10 seats, while the Democrats must lose fewer than 10 (if 9 seats switch, it'll give an even 50-50 split, with Vice President Biden serving as the tie-breaker for the Democrats).

The Republicans have seen a recent upswing in popularity, but the jury is still out on whether it'll be enough to effect the outcome of these elections. The extremely-excellent political blog FiveThirtyEight.com is currently giving them an 84% chance to take the House of Reps, and a 11% chance to win the Senate. I'll be tackling the Senate here, since it has significantly fewer races of interest than the House. If you'd like a good guide to the House races, though, 538's got a great one here (I'm half expecting them to do a similar guide for the Senate tomorrow, in which case it'll probably be more useful than anything I write).

So, let's get started! Keep in mind: The Republicans need to win a net 10 races.

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First of all, we'll look at the seats that aren't up for grabs. 23 Republicans and 40 Democrats are keeping their seats automatically: they're not up for election this year. A commanding lead for the Democrats.

There are a few other races that are of the tortoise-and-hare variety, in that one candidate will obviously win unless he takes a nap halfway through. These are Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer's seat - the other seat in New York is much closer), and Vermont for the Democrats, as well as Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, North & South Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Utah for the Republicans. In all, 11 more seats easily go to the Republicans, and 4 more to the Democrats, bringing the current score to Elephants 34-44 Donkeys.

That leaves 22 races that should prove vaguely interesting. Different states close the polls at different times, so let's look at the remaining races in the order that the polls will close. I'll use bold text to denote what I feel are the key races, to keep this skimmable.

Closing at 6 pm: Kentucky, Indiana
Barring a major surprise, both these states should be early victories for the Republicans. In Kentucky, Rand Paul(R) leads Jack Conway(D) by about 10%. Rand Paul is the son of long-serving Texas 14th Representative (and occasional presidential candidate) Ron Paul, who is at least reasonably interesting politically. There was some concern that Conway would sneak back into the race after a series of allegations that Paul was part of a Christianity-mocking fraternity back in college (an obvious no-no in bible-thumping Kentucky), but after taking a brief dip in the polls, Paul is back to having a commanding lead. Meanwhile, in Indiana, Dan Coats(R) looks likely to coast to victory over Brad Ellsworth, who he leads by about 18%. Ellsworth may've scored a few points by publishing Coats' lobbying record, but the Democratic candidate's record of voting for both the economic stimulus and the healthcare bill (both unpopular in Indiana) ultimately leave Ellsworth in an untenable position.
Predicted Score @ 6pm: Repubs 36-44 Dems

Closing at 7 pm: Florida
Of five states closing at 7, only one is reasonably competitive in the Senate: Florida. This year, Florida is one of those rare 3-way races that stays close even to the bitter end. Former Governor and moderate conservative Charlie Crist(I) got in the race early as a Republican, but after losing the primary to Tea Partier Marco Rubio(R), announced he would run as an Independent. You might expect the him to draw votes away from Rubio, but strangely the opposite seems to be happening: He's instead taking vote that might otherwise go to Democratic Candidate Kendrick Meek(D). The polls currently have Rubio leading at 44%, with Crist at 32% and Meek at 22%. There was a bit of a dust-up over allegations that Bill Clinton asked Meek to drop out of the race and endorse Crist, but he's denied any intention to do so. Races like this are always unpredictable (third-party voters may compromise and shift toward a candidate they think is more likely to win), so Florida gets highlighted.
Predicted Score @ 7pm: Repubs 36-44 Dems, 1 too close to call.

Closing at 7:30 pm: Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia
In Ohio, Rob Portman(R) is polling at around 57%, compared to Lee Fisher's low-40s - quite a healthy margin. This race used to be a lot closer, but Portman opened up his lead around September and shows no significant weaknesses. North Carolina plays much the same way: Incumbent Richard Burr(R) is around a 12% lead over Elaine Marshall(D). However, the race in West Virginia between John Raese(R) and Joe Manchin(D) is quite close. Manchin currently has a small lead (perhaps 2%), with support from the mining unions, but Raese has earned points for his pro-life stance and his criticism of Manchin's cap-and-trade position. West Virginia is a definite swing state this election, and a win here by Republicans could be a early indicator of a Senate takeover.
Predicted Score @ 7:30pm: Repubs 38-44 Dems, 2 too close to call.

Closing at 8pm: 6 of 'em - CT, DE, IL, MO, NH, PA
8 o'clock is when a bunch of races close at once, so I'll move through these fairly quickly. In Delaware, the now-infamous 'Witch Ad' seems to have permanently ended Christine O'Donnell's(R) chances of beating Chris Coons(D) for Senate - a significant roadblock to the Republican effort to regain the Senate. In Missouri, Roy Blunt(R) leads Robin Carnahan(D) by about 10%, off a fairly standard platform opposing the stimulus and healthcare bills. The story is similar in New Hampshire, with Kelly Ayotte(R) leading Paul Hodes(D) by an even greater margin on much the same set of issues. The other two races, however, are much closer. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey(R) is only around 4% ahead of Joe Sestak(D) in the race for Arlen Specter's old seat. Specter was the Republican Senator who switched parties to the Democrats in April of last year - a move that likely cost him his seat. Meanwhile, in Illinois, the battle over President Obama's old Senate seat remains close, with Mark Kirk(R) running just over a percentage point above Alexi Giannoulias(D). In total, two seats are running close, and the Republicans have a slight advantage in both of them.
Predicted Score @ 8pm: Repubs 40-46 Dems, 4 too close to call.

Closing at 8:30pm: Arkansas
Blanche Lincoln(D) of Arkansa may be on her way to being the least-popular incumbent Senator in recent memory. She currently trails John Boozman(R) by at least 20%. Understanding why, exactly, she's so unpopular brings us back to the main issues of this election: Healthcare and the stimulus. It probably didn't help that she only barely defeated Lt. Governor Bill Halter, another popular Democrat, in a rather ugly primary that may've turned off her opponent's supporters from showing up to the general election.
Predicted Score @ 8:30pm: Repubs 41-46 Dems, 4 too close to call.

Closing at 9pm: Colorado, Louisiana, New York, Wisconsin
By 9 o'clock, the majority of the country will have closed its polls. In Colorado, Ken Buck(R) and incumbent Michael Bennet(D) are within a single percentage point. Though Buck has a nominal lead, the two have battled over who was more of a political outsider, with no clear winner. This remains the closest race in the country; nearly anything could happen at this point. Louisiana, on the other hand, looks safely Republican, with incumbent David Vitter(R) leading Charlie Melancon(D) by around 15%. This would be Vitter's second term in the Senate. In contrast, 3-term Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold(D) appears in serious danger of losing his seat to Ron Johnson(R), who passed him in the polls in mid-September. Finally, the second Senate seat in New York (vacated by Hilary Clinton when she became Secretary of State) looks like a sure thing for Kirsten Gillibrand(D), who leads Joseph DioGuardi(R) by about 20%. Recall that the other seat in New York, Schumer's(D), we already gave him as a 'sure thing'.
Predicted Score @ 9pm: Repubs 43-47 Dems, 5 too close to call.

Closing at 10pm: Nevada, Oregon
Of the seven races closing at 10pm, only two of them are in any doubt. In Oregon, incumbent Ron Wyden(D) has shown gradual improvement in the polls, and now leads challenger Jim Huffman(R) by an apparently insurmountable 20%. The race in Nevada is much closer, with Majority Leader Harry Reid(D) caught in a tough battle against Sharron Angle(R) - a battle he's currently losing by as much as 3%. If Angle brings this one to the finish line, it will be a major upset for Republicans: not only is it another Senate seat, but a decisive blow against one of the architects of the successful healthcare push. However, Reid is deeply entrenched in his state's political infrastructure, and his ability to get out the vote is second to none. Definitely a race to watch.
Predicted Score @ 10pm: Repubs 43-48 Dems, 6 too close to call.

Closing at 11pm: California, Washington
Only three real races remain; if the Senate is still in jeopardy at this point, it's probably very good news for the Republicans. In California, Carly Fiorina(R) now trails incumbent Barbara Boxer(D) by around 6%, a drop from mid-September, when they were running neck and neck. While she could still make a surprise comeback, the Democrats appear to have successfully defended this seat. In the state of Washington, meanwhile, the situation is more tenuous. Challenger Dino Rossi(R) has been deadlocked with incumbent Patty Murray(D) since early this year, and is currently trailing by just under 2%. This one will be worth staying up for, I promise.
Predicted Score @ 11pm: Repubs 43-49 Dems, 7 too close to call.

Closing after Midnight: Alaska
The last race to close will be Alaska, where a bizarre three-way race is underway. If you didn't get your fill in Florida, you're in luck, because this one will be even closer. Lisa Murkowski(R) is the incumbent, but was beaten (barely) in a tense primary struggle against Joe Miller(R). His Democrat opponent in the general election will be Scott McAdams(D), who currently gathers 27% of the vote in dominantly-conservative Alaska. However, Murkowski has organized a write-in campaign (her name appears nowhere on the ballot), and some polls show her getting as much as 34% of the vote, compared to Miller's 39%. I can't remember the last time a write-in campaign was successful, but there's a chance here. Again, three-way races are tough to call; anything could happen.
Predicted Score @ 11pm: Repubs 43-49 Dems, 8 too close to call.
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So there it is, folks: Of the 37 Senate races this election, there are 8 that have my full, undivided attention (or rather, divided-in-eighths attention...). My prediction (like pretty much everyone else, of course) is that the Democrats will hang on to the Senate, though barely. While the Republicans have the edge in most of the toss-ups (Washington being the exception), the odds of them winning every last one of them are slight. Still, nothing's decided until the votes are counted.

Here's hoping you enjoy the election, and remember to vote!

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Next Time:
This is kind of a joke at this point, but I might do a little entry on either
-Teach for America, Chancellor Rhee, and 'Waiting for Superman' (if I get a chance to go see it)
-The KC-X next-gen aerial refuelling tanker (which you probably don't care about, but I think is cool)